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CDON: Reducing unprofitable GMV; eyes on GPAM - SEB

Ahead of CDON’s Q3 report, we cut our GMV forecasts (reflecting reported market surveys in the period) while raising our GP after marketing (GPAM) estimates by an average of 3% over our projection period (2023-25). After assuming a higher share of net cost savings this year and next, we raise our EBITDA forecasts by an average of 9% for the same period. We reiterate our DCF-based mid-point equity value of SEK 315 per share.

Ahead of CDON’s Q3 report, we cut our GMV forecasts (reflecting reported market surveys in the period) while raising our GP after marketing (GPAM) estimates by an average of 3% over our projection period (2023-25). After assuming a higher share of net cost savings this year and next, we raise our EBITDA forecasts by an average of 9% for the same period. We reiterate our DCF-based mid-point equity value of SEK 315 per share.
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