We expect the overall issues seen in Q2-Q4’21 to continue in Q1’22 for CBTT, i.e. component shortages, supply chain issues and longer lead and delivery times. However, we believe the underlying demand is still good, which should result in strong order intake. All in all, we estimate sales of SEK 180m, up 12% y-o-y, of which 4% organic (ABGSCe -18% organic growth in Q1’21), 2% FX and 7% M&A. We forecast both segments Process & Environment and Materials Technology to show low to mid-single-digit organic growth. We expect adj. EBITA of SEK 7.6m, corresponding to an adj. EBITA margin of 4.2% (4.9%), up 2.6pp q-o-q. Last quarter had a negative product mix with lower gross margins, mainly due to the delivery of a project in China with a low margin (Process & Environment segment). Normally, the finalisation of such projects occurs in the fourth quarter, so we expect an improved product mix in Q1’22, explaining the margin improvement q-o-q.
Increased M&A pace from 2023e
We leave our estimates relatively unchanged. Looking ahead, we forecast a ’21-‘24e adj. EBITA CAGR of 24%. The new CEO, Caroline Reuterskiöld (previously business area manager within Lagercrantz’s Niche Products division), will join the company on 28 April 2022. After this, a permanent CFO will be recruited. Due to the transition of management in H1’22, we expect to see little M&A activity this year. However, with Ms. Reuterskiöld’s experience from Lagercrantz, we expect acquisitions to be made more frequently in the longer term, compared to CBTT’s historical average of one per year, providing upside to our estimates, which do not include unannounced acquisitions.
8x ‘23e EV/EBITA
The share is trading at 8x ‘23e EV/EBITA, ~30% below closest peers Seafire and Stockwik. The latter two have been more active with M&A, however. We reiterate our fair ...
Läs mer på Introduce
Aktuellt
SENASTE
