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Cibus: Limited risk of significant fair value declines - Nordea

Like most other Nordic real estate companies, Cibus will likely focus mainly on its balance sheet and debt obligations. Hence, we believe only small add-on acquisitions could be made in the foreseeable future. On the positive side, grocery-anchored retail premises have not experienced much yield compression over the past few years. Thus, Cibus faces limited risk of asset value declines amid rising interest rates, in our view. We keep our fair value range unchanged at SEK 160-200, based on a combination of P/EPRA NRV and peer group valuations. The compounder case is on hold, as the share is trading at a discount to EPRA NRV. Our fair value range implies a 2023E P/EPRA NRV of 0.86-1.08x, 2023E adjusted P/E of 12-14x and a 2023E dividend yield of 6.1-7.7%. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

Like most other Nordic real estate companies, Cibus will likely focus mainly on its balance sheet and debt obligations. Hence, we believe only small add-on acquisitions could be made in the foreseeable future. On the positive side, grocery-anchored retail premises have not experienced much yield compression over the past few years. Thus, Cibus faces limited risk of asset value declines amid rising interest rates, in our view. We keep our fair value range unchanged at SEK 160-200, based on a combination of P/EPRA NRV and peer group valuations. The compounder case is on hold, as the share is trading at a discount to EPRA NRV. Our fair value range implies a 2023E P/EPRA NRV of 0.86-1.08x, 2023E adjusted P/E of 12-14x and a 2023E dividend yield of 6.1-7.7%. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.
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