Since 2018, Clavister has implemented a new strategy that has made its offering clearer to clients, while streamlining the sales organisation to focus on its core customer segments: service providers, governments and defence contractors. It is now banking on being able to leverage its relationships with partners to drive the necessary growth to scale. So far, the strategy is working. All incremental sales since 2017 have fallen to the bottom line. If the company can continue growing sales at a ~20% CAGR while keeping costs flat, we see it generating positive EBITDA in ’22e and EBIT in ’23e. We forecast a 19% sales CAGR ’21e-’23e, just shy of its growth ambition of 20% p.a. In terms of EBITDA margin, we forecast 3% and 16% for ’22e-’23e, respectively.
We initiate coverage with a fair value range of SEK 5-16
We arrive at a fair value range of SEK 5-16 per share by constructing a DCF and looking at peer multiples. On our estimates, the stock trades at 3.3x ’23e EV/sales, compared to the avg. cybersecurity peer of 10.6x.
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