* Q3 report due 23 October; we cut '25e-'27e EPS by ~2% * We expect further margin and cash flow recovery... * ...while organic growth should remain muted, but positive Q3e: +1% organic growth, +5% adj. EBITA y-o-y We expect that Q3e will follow the same themes as Q2, with continued margin and cash flow improvements but muted organic growth. The organic growth remains muted in Sweden (-2%) and Denmark (-3%) on the back of slower customer intake and a few churning customers. On the other hand, we expect Norway to continue its strong trend (+12%), due to new customers and high project volumes (mainly in the energy/gas sector). This translates to +1% organic growth on group level, vs. +3% in Q2 and 0% in Q3'24. We expect SEK 127m adj. EBITA, +5% y-o-y, for a margin of 4.3% (4.1%). We fine-tune our estimates and trim EPS by ~2% for '25e-'27e. Lowered gearing allows for higher dividends After very weak cash generation in connection with the profit warning and weak profitability in Q4'24, Coor's cash generation has started to bounce back. The cash conversion in H1'25 was unusually high, and we expect continued good momentum in H2e, with 100% conversion from EBITA to free cash flow in Q3e. As such, we expect the LTM free cash flow to improve to SEK 300m in Q3e, up from SEK 0m in Q4'24. For the full year 2025e, we expect close to SEK 500m FCF. This in turn should allow Coor to increase the dividends or initiate share buybacks, as we also expect the gearing to be more reasonable again (2.5x in Q4'25e vs 3.4x in Q4'24). A return to historical DPS (SEK 4.8), would correspond to a yield of 10%. Valuation gap to peers has narrowed We note that the share has traded up with the Nordic service sector this year, but also that the valuation gap has narrowed. Based on FactSet consensus NTM EBITA, Coor trades ~10% below Nordic service peers. On our estimates for 2026, Coor trades fairly in line with peers on EV/EBITA and P/E. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 35-80 per share.
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