Crunchfish: Detailing the eight revenue opportunities ahead - Emergers

While the Q3’24 report did not contain any particular surprises in terms of financials, it did provide details on the eight revenue opportunities Crunchfish in seeing, including timeline estimates ranging from 3 to 24 months, along with some insights into their revenue potential. While we see a fair chance for a partner-driven deal with a commercial payment system outside India during 2025, it is clear that the three-pronged approach in India involving commercial banks, NPCI, and RBI still holds the most promise. This is also where discussions appear to be most advanced. The imminent rights issue of shares and warrants (units) amounting to SEK 57 million before costs should provide Crunchfish with the runway needed to secure a commercial deal, while the two warrants (TO 10 and TO 11 at SEK 36m and SEK 48m, respectively) could provide additional capital in February and May 2025. The revenue opportunities in India and ongoing partner sales processes continue to support a high revaluation potential (previous fair value was 3x the price before the announcement of the rights issue), though we await the outcome of the rights issue before setting a new target. As noted in our last research report, the share price has gravitated towards the subscription price (at SEK 1.45 per share) and is likely to remain in this region until financing is secured.