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CTT Systems: Aftermarket recovery continues - ABG

5% sales growth (ABGSC +2%), 29% EBIT margin (35%)
‘22e-‘23e EBIT down 6-2% on slightly lower AM sales
12x EV/EBIT 2025e, >20% EBIT growth, 60% ROIC

The recovery in air traffic continued to support a sequential improvement for CTT. Sales grew 7% q-o-q (10% y-o-y organically) and reached the high end of CTT’s guidance at SEK 40m (+3% vs. ABGSCe), while a ~70% aftermarket (AM) share supported a 29% EBIT margin (ABGSCe 35%). For Q4, we expect OEM sales to trough and 6% q-o-q growth in AM sales to yield sales of SEK 42m (vs. CTT’s guidance of SEK 40-45m), 20% y-o-y, with a 30% EBIT margin. Excluding the deselected B787 dehumidifiers (SEK 51m of 2019 sales), we expect CTT to generate 2022 sales in line with 2019 levels, supported by OEM sales 40% below 2019 and AM sales 30% above 2019. This is supported by continued growth in the installed base during the pandemic, price increases and recovering flight traffic in 2022. Finally, the accretive impact from AM sales means that we expect a 2022e adj. EBIT margin of 37%, which yields an adj. EBIT in line with 2019.

Based on the current share price, our estimates above would imply an EV/EBIT of 12x 2025e (11x adjusted for dividends). For FY’22e-‘23e, CTT is trading at 23-18x EV/EBIT, which is 20-30% below Nordic tech peers that have similar growth and profitability.
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