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CTT Systems: Continued sequential improvement - ABG

10% organic growth y-o-y, +7% q-o-q, 29% margin
FY’21 guidance implies adj. EBIT 10% below ABGSCe
Positive 2022 outlook, has underperformed into numbers

CTT delivered sales of SEK 40m (+3% vs. ABGSCe 39m), up 7% q-o-q and 10% y-o-y organically (ABGSCe +3%), driven by 150% growth in the aftermarket business (-4% vs. ABGSCe) and better OEM sales than expected (SEK 6m vs. ABGSCe 5m). Adj. EBIT improved 81% y-o-y and reached SEK 12m (-17% vs. ABGSCe 14m), for a margin of 29% (ABGSCe 35%) as aftermarket revenues accounted for ~70% of sales. . For Q4, CTT guides for revenues of SEK 40-45m (15-30 y-o-y vs. Q4’20, mid-point 16% below ABGSCe at SEK 51m). For the full-year, CTT thereby guides for revenues of SEK 149-154m (mid-point 5% below ABGSCe SEK 159m). In addition, the CEO expects the business climate to normalise and for the order pace in retrofit and private jets to improve “soon”, thus supporting 2022 sales. In addition, the CEO expects higher production rates among the OEMs from Q1’22 to support OEM sales.

A report that confirms the ongoing recovery. The stock has underperformed the small cap index (-1% L1M, vs. the CSXE at +4%) into numbers and is trading at 22-18x EV/EBIT ‘22e-‘23e. Although the report and FY’21 guidance was below our assumptions, we believe that the outlook into 2022 will be seen as positive and support a positive reaction for the share. There is a conference call at 09:30 CET, dial-in: SE +46 8 505 583 74, UK +44 333 300 92 63.
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