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CTT Systems: Up, up and away - ABG

Aftermarket drives organic recovery and 40% margins FX offsets slower organic ramp-up; EBIT up 2-0% 27-15x EBIT ‘22e-‘24e on 34% EBIT CAGR ‘22e-‘24e Recovery to continue in H2’22e, albeit at a slower pace

CTT’s margin-accretive aftermarket business continued to recover in strong fashion. Sales grew 36% organically (ABGSCe 32%) to SEK 58m, above its own guidance of SEK 50-55m and ABGSCe at SEK 52m. In addition, the high share of AM revenues (69%) and significant FX support drove >250% EBIT growth and 40% margins (ABGSCe 28%). However, OEM remained at low levels, and we expect private jet and AM sales to ramp up at a slower pace than previously expected. We therefore forecast Q3 sales of SEK 62m (vs. guidance of SEK 58-63m), up 7% q-o-q, which then grows an additional 17%, to SEK 73m, in Q4. Although margins will gradually decline somewhat over time due to an increased share of OEM sales, we expect margins to remain at ~40% for the remainder of 2022 as a result of FX and a high AM share. Finally, we note that AM revenues are now ~10% above 2019 levels.

OEM deliveries to ramp up in early 2023 We raise ‘22e-‘24e EBIT by 2-0%, respectively, as lowered organic growth assumptions are fully offset by FX and accretive AM sales. A weaker macro-economic climate could have a negative impact on travel demand, but we see significant support as to why most areas in CTT’s business should deliver strong growth. For 2023e-2024e, we forecast ~50-20% EBIT growth (7% CAGR 2019-2024e).

Significant earnings growth also beyond the pandemic We reiterate our view that CTT should be able to deliver >20% EBIT growth from 2023e, due to: 1) highly profitable AM sales, which benefit from recovering air traffic as well as a growing installed base, 2) improving aircraft production rates and 3) the attractive private jet market. By 2026, we expect CTT to maintain its monopolistic market position, and we forecast sales of ~SEK 740m (11% org CAGR ’19-‘26e), EBIT of SEK 245m (11% CAGR), 33% margins, and ~50% R ... Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier
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