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Detection Technology: Looking for signs of recovery - Evli Research

Expecting declining sales, but a better quarter than last

We expect Q3 net sales of 24 MEUR (23,5 MEUR cons) and EBIT of 4 MEUR (3,4 MEUR cons), meaning a decline of around -11% and -20% respectively compared to last year. Despite decline, we expect Q3 to be clearly better than Q2. The reason behind net sales decline is the lower demand in SBU due to the COVID-19 pandemic affecting the demand for security X-ray devices, especially in aviation segment. We expect SBU net sales to decline -27% to 13,5 MEUR. MBU is compensating for the decline in SBU, as demand for medical CT imaging is currently strong due to the pandemic. We expect MBU net sales to grow 26% on slightly weak comparison figures to 10,5 MEUR. We expect DT’s Q3 EBIT to be 4 MEUR (17% EBIT margin), which is -20% lower y/y (high comparison figure), but clearly better than in Q2 (2,6 MEUR).

Looking for signs of recovery in SBU amidst low visibility

DT has stated that it expects lower demand in the security segment to continue in Q3 and SBU sales to decrease in 2020. DT however sees SBU sales starting to improve towards end of the year. DT estimated in its Q2 report that airport CT standard equipment upgrades in Europe and U.S. will be postponed at least 12 months. Regarding China, it remains unclear when similar Chinese airport standardization will start and if any security infrastructure related government recovery measures will take place. MBU sales growth is expected to continue in H2 driven by the demand in CT applications.

Situation regarding aviation main uncertainty

The situation regarding aviation remains the biggest near-term uncertainty for DT as SBU represents roughly 2/3 of net sales and we’ve estimated aviation to contribute roughly half of SBU net sales. We have not made any changes to our estimates, thus we maintain our target price of 22 euros ahead of the report, our recommendation is HOLD (prev. BUY).
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