Diös, with properties in northern Sweden, delivered a Q4 report exceeding our and consensus estimates. We increase our rental income estimates by ~5-6%: we anticipate solid like-for-like rental growth and there have been four acquisitions announced since our last update. Our NOI estimates are up ~3%, slightly lower than the top line revisions, as management guided for a sustained 2021 NOI margin in the coming years. Our cash earnings revisions are positive in absolute terms, while negative on a per share basis due to the dilution effect of newly issued shares. The share issue was done at a premium to EPRA NRV, hence it is accretive and a clear positive for potential upcoming acquisitions.
Strong balance sheet allows for CEPS growth ahead of targets
EPRA NRV increased to SEK 98/share, equivalent to y-o-y growth (incl. paid DPS) of ~25% and an exceptional 11% q-o-q, mainly driven by major property value changes of 3.3% in the quarter. Although a majority of the 2021 value changes stem from lower valuation yield requirements, it is positive that NOI assumptions are up, and both projects and building rights contributed positively. We forecast CEPS growth of ~9% for 2022e and 2023e, below the company’s IFPM target of 10%. However, we forecast EPRA NRV growth of ~13%, above the company’s target of 12% p.a. Worth noting is the stronger-than-ever balance sheet, with a net LTV of 48.6% as of Q4’21. Should Diös find acquisitions on which to use that incremental capital headroom (target LTV <55%), ceps growth will most likely surpass company targets.
2022e P/CEPS of 13x, ~15-20% below peers
The share is trading at a 2022e P/CEPS of ~13x and a 2022e P/NAV discount of ~6%. These valuation metrics are some ~20% (P/CEPS) or ~15% (P/EPRA NRV) below the average valuation for peers such as Castellum, Nyfosa and Wihlborgs. With a solid cash flow generation
... Läs mer på Introduce
Aktuellt
SENASTE
