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Elanders presented a mixed Q1 report, with a high single-digit organic sales decline, as Fashion saw a ~20% y/y drop in Europe and the US. Coupled with recent investments, profitability remains burdened by overcapacity, resulting in a 170bp lower adjusted EBITA margin y/y for Supply Chain Solutions (SCS). We take a somewhat more cautious view on the short-term margin trajectory for SCS and lower group adjusted EBITA by 3-9% for 2024E-26E, but we are encouraged by the important Electronics segment turning more positive. Negatively, we estimate a lease-adjusted net debt to EBITDA of 3.3x for 2024E (higher net debt from recent M&A and FX) and interest expenses will likely see a firm uptick starting in Q2 2024. We cut our multiples-based fair value range to SEK 83-142 (90-154). Marketing material commissioned by Elanders.
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