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Elanders presented a somewhat soft Q3 2023 report with -11% organic growth, owing to Supply Chain Solutions and augmented by the normalisation of Air & Sea freight rates. The company continues to see diminishing demand in all major segments, with Electronics particularly soft, while overcapacity weighs on its profitability. The margin is set to improve from here, due to the phase-out of buy-and-sell and the exit from the unprofitable transportation business in Germany, hence we expect a SEK ~200m working capital release to drive strong cash flow in Q4 2023, leading to our net debt/EBITDA estimate of 3.7x by the end of the year. We lower adjusted EBIT by 8-9% for 2023E-25E and adjust our fair value range to SEK 85-141 (103-162), implying 11-13x EV/EBIT for 2024E. Marketing material commissioned by Elanders.
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