We expect Q1 sales of SEK 2,904m, up 6% y-o-y (-4% org, +9% M&A, +1% FX). Access to components should continue to hold back demand, particularly within the Automotive and Industrial customer segments (~30% of Elanders), where we estimate organic growth of -6% and -3%, respectively. We expect adj. EBITA of SEK 141m for a margin of 4.9% (5.2%). There are several factors behind the lower Q1 margin: 1) higher fuel prices, 2) increased personnel expenses on overtime pay for employees working longer to compensate for Omicron sick leave, and 3) a further rise in paper prices following major strikes at Finnish pulp mills. All in all, these factors lead us to take a cautious view on margins, mainly in Print & Packaging Solutions (we estimate 4.0% adj. EBITA margin, 5.8% in Q1’21), but also to some extent in Supply Chain Solutions (we estimate 5.4%, 5.4% in Q1’21). In general, it takes Elanders 3-6 months to move rising costs on to its customers.
Soft H1’22 already in estimates; only minor changes
Rising input costs and component issues have been known for a while, and thus they are largely already factored into our estimates for H1’22. As such, we make only minor estimate revisions, lowering our adj. EBITA estimates by 2-1% for ’22e-’24e with the revisions primarily driven by the Print business. This mostly stems from the continued rise in paper prices, as well as a disruption in the paper supply due to the aforementioned strikes, which we had not previously accounted for.
Looking past near-term struggles
H1’22e looks to be a somewhat difficult period for Elanders, as the company will continue to deal with high input costs and supply chain disruptions. However, the share is now trading at 12x ’22e EV/EBITA (or 9x lease adj. EV/EBITA), and we expect a backlog in demand once we see a return to normal (especial ...
Läs mer på Introduce
Aktuellt
SENASTE
