Net sales were SEK 3,364m (+9% vs. ABGSCe 3,100m, +8% vs. FactSet cons 3,127m), up +17% y-o-y of which 5% organic (ABGSCe +1%). Adj. EBITA was SEK 244m (-11% vs. ABGSCe 274m, -6% vs. cons 259m) for a margin of 7.3% (ABGSCe 8.8%, cons 8.3%), including NRIs of SEK -16m (ABGSCe -17m). Net profit was SEK 120m (-22% vs. ABGSCe 155m, -18% vs. cons 147m). Sales and organic growth were above expectations but margins were lacking, driven by 1) the high-margin online print and photobook business not getting as big of a “Christmas boost” as last year, and 2) component shortages leading to irregular capacity utilisation as customers shifted demand patterns on short notice.
Estimate changes
Following the Q4 report, we expect negative consensus estimate revisions of 3-4% on adj. EBITA. There was not much news on the outlook front, where we already know component shortages will continue to affect the Automotive, Industrial and Electronics customer segments in H1’22e. Management also says that the financial effects of Omicron on ’22e are still difficult to judge.
Final thoughts and conf call details
On our pre-Q4 estimates, the share is trading at 12x ’22e EV/EBITA (adj.) with an expected ’21e-’23e adj. EBITA CAGR of 15%. In addition, our estimates imply that Elanders will have ~SEK 1bn in M&A headroom for 2022, which we believe the company is likely to utilise at least partially. Finally, the company has scheduled a conference call for 09:30 CET, dial-in SE: +46856642754, UK: +443303369600, pin: 758620.
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