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SENASTE
We lower adjusted EBITA by 6-11% for 2025E-27E, owing to recent FX movements, while we take a somewhat more cautious short-term view on demand and margins, pencilling in a 14% y/y adjusted EBITA decline for Q1 2025. Although short-term sentiment remains weak, bolstered by the weakness in Automotive and Fashion in the US, we continue to be encouraged by the fact that Elanders is streamlining its business by phasing out low-margin businesses, most recently the structural measures related to its German transportation business, and we continue to look for Elanders to emerge stronger in a rebounding environment. As such, we forecast an 8% adjusted EBITA CAGR between 2024 and 2027. With 2025E lease-adjusted net debt/EBITDA of 3.3x, short-term leverage remains elevated and provides limited upside optionality from M&A. We derive a lower multiples-based fair value range of SEK 69-124 (78-135), implying 2026E EV/EBITA of 10-12x. Marketing material commissioned by Elanders.
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