Energy Save: OEM sales up, softer start to '26 expected - ABG
* Sales +12% vs. ABGSCe, EBIT SEK 1.2m (vs. 2.4m) * Recovery in OEM business after weaker Q2/Q3, sales up +40% * Inventory levels down but cash flow soft, FCF of SEK -3.8m
ANNONS
Q4 results
Q4 sales were SEK 70m (+33% y-o-y and +12% vs. ABGSCe 63m). Residential continues to be the sales driver, with sales of SEK 67m (vs. 48m LY), while Commercial remains weak (SEK 3.1m, -42% q-o-q and -29% y-o-y). OEM sales increased to SEK 52m (SEK 37m LY), following the temporary inventory build-up in Q2/Q3. Despite the higher than expected sales, gross margins contracted to 33% (44% LY, ABGSCe 35%) and EBIT came in at SEK 1.2m (vs. ABGSCe 2.4m, -5m LY). Moreover, although we find it positive that inventory levels were down, FCF was on the weaker side at SEK -3.8m (4.7m LY). The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of SEK 23m (54m LY).
Estimate changes and outlook
On numbers alone, '26e-'27e sales is impacted by +3% and EBIT by SEK -1.3m vs. FY'26e estimate of SEK 7m). On outlook, management indicates that volumes are likely to be lower in the opening quarters of '26 vs. Q4'25, partly due to seasonal variations. We find this likely given that Q1 tends to be a seasonally weaker quarter. However, the company expects a stronger second half, particularly Q4, supporting an improved financial position and progress toward break-even for FY'26.
Valuation
Prior to today's report, the share was down -15% L3M and is on our pre-report estimates and is trading at 4x-1x '26e-'27e P/E on our pre-report estimates.
