Estimate changes
Fastpartner delivered a Q3 report with rental income 2% below our expectations. Two projects that were scheduled for completion in Q3 were pushed into Q4. Looking at Q2, three projects scheduled for completion in the quarter were pushed into Q3, and the only project scheduled for completion in Q1 was pushed into Q3. Given the recurring nature of these delays, we adjust our project assumptions ahead, which in combination with lower CPI estimates and a more hesitant rental market (FPAR mentions no less than 16 tenant bankruptcies YTD) means that top-line estimates are down ~5% in 2025/2026e. At the same time, our interest rate expectations are down since our most recent update, mitigating a large part of the negative top-line revisions (CEPS ~-4% in 2025e and ~0% in 2026e).
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