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We upgrade adjusted EBIT by 2-3% for 2024-26E, encouraged by a continued healthy North American market and a return to a more normalised market dynamic in Germany. While 2024 will likely remain challenging – we expect group organic growth to decline by 14% y/y – we believe this is already well understood. Rather, we focus on the green shoots that are appearing. We expect a continued positive sequential earnings delta throughout 2024, with the adjusted EBIT margin reaching ~4% by year-end 2024, compared to ~2% in Q1 2024 and -4.5% at the trough in Q3 2023. In 2025, we expect a return to a healthier market, with pre-buying in the market ahead of new legislation in 2026, yielding 8% y/y group sales growth. We reiterate our valuation range of 7-11x 2025E EV/EBIT, corresponding to SEK 59-92 per share. - Marketing material commissioned by Ferronordic.
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