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Formpipe: Another quarter of very strong ACV numbers - ABG

Better EBIT than forecast, strong ACV expansion
We raise ’22-’23e EBIT by 8-9%, chiefly on lower D&A
29x ‘22e EV/EBIT is a 24% discount to peers

Formpipe continues to execute well on its new strategy. SaaS ACV sales were SEK 9.0m, up from SEK 2.7m in Q3’20. Although we note that its partner Temenos reported a sequential slowdown in Q3 ACV (USD 10.7m, vs. SEK 17.4m in Q2), Formpipe’s ACV was in line with Q2 at SEK 9.2m. Given that Temenos is not Formpipe’s only partner, the correlation for ACV is not perfect (0.5 for Q3’19-Q3’21). That said, we believe that the Q3 results suggest that Formpipe is increasing its hit ratio. We also find it encouraging that Temenos guides for accelerating growth in Q4, particularly for its European operations. Furthermore, Q3 EBIT of SEK 17m (16% EBIT margin) was well above our forecast at SEK 10m, driven by a 2% sales beat alongside opex and D&A at 2% and 17% lower than our forecast, respectively.

We now forecast 2023 sales of SEK 516m, corresponding to a ’20-‘23e CAGR of 9%. We continue to see upside to this from future M&A, which we have not included in our forecasts. Owing to its scalable business model, we find Formpipe’s 2025 target of >20% EBIT margin reachable. Based on our new 2022 estimates, we see 29x EV/EBIT, which represents a 24% discount to Nordic SaaS peers.
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