Fortnox: Focus on getting the last pieces in place

Fortnox: Focus on getting the last pieces in place - ABG

Q3e sales of SEK 238m and EBIT of SEK 90m
Slightly lowered sales assumptions for Q3
Promising Q4 outlook, ’22e-’23e EV/EBIT of 62-43x

In our view, Q2 was a step in the right direction for Fortnox, with 16% organic growth q-o-q in transaction-based sales (vs. -17% in Q1). Its customer intake continued to be strong (+15,000 q-o-q vs. +13,000 in Q2’20), and its recent internal projects entered their final stages. In Q3, we expect flat sequential transaction-based sales, but see solid growth in subscription-based sales, which gives total sales of SEK 238m, up 36% y-o-y (22% organically). In terms of adj. EBIT, we expect SEK 90m (-3% vs. FactSet cons. SEK 93m), for a margin of 37.8% (vs. 47.1% in Q3’20). This corresponds to 10% adj. EBIT growth y-o-y, vs. +14% in Q2. As in Q2, the margin contraction stems from the fact that transaction-based sales have not yet fully recovered, coupled with increased investments in the internal platform, and margin-dilutive acquisitions.

We also expect the positive momentum to continue in 2022, where we see sales of SEK 1,279m and EBIT of SEK 479m. At today’s share price, this corresponds to 23x EV/sales and 62x EV/EBIT. After a period of deceleration in both sales and adj. EBIT growth metrics, we expect Q3 to mark the trough.

Fortnox: Focus on getting the last pieces in place - ABG

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Börsläget den 10 december, 2024

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Fortnox: Focus on getting the last pieces in place - ABG

Agnes Michanek pekar ut vägen framåt

Börsläget den 10 december, 2024

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