After revisiting the Freja case following the Q2 report, we conclude: 1) Freja’s niche Org eID market should be its key short-term monetisation driver; 2) competitor Mobilt BankID still has a monopoly-like position for private users, but Freja eID should gain traction in niche use-cases; and 3) a recapitalisation in 2022 is still likely. Although we find Freja well-positioned to capitalise on its market opportunity, we have lowered our fair value to SEK7–11 (12–17), having cut our 2022–2023e net sales by an average ~16% to reflect our updated view of its growth prospects.
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