Market outperformance and positive trend into Q1'23
We forecast a stable Q1 for G5, with sales of SEK 350m (+5% y-o-y, of which -5% organic, 10% FX) compared to overall market growth of a negative ~8% in Q1, according to market data platforms. The trend for G5 remains positive, with org. growth improving q-o-q once again (-10% in Q3'22 and -7% in Q4'22). Hidden City seems to be maintaining a very stable revenue trend as well, which is encouraging. We expect HC's growth to be positive y-o-y for the first quarter in over four years (measured in SEK). We also forecast Sherlock to set a new all-time high in quarterly sales in Q1 (up 2% q-o-q and 50% y-o-y). On costs, the RUB has depreciated slightly, which reduces personnel costs, while we expect UAC/sales to be higher compared to Q4'22. With slightly lower sales q-o-q due to seasonality, we forecast a lower EBIT margin of 11% in Q1'23e for EBIT of SEK 39m.
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