The guidance for continuing operations for 2020 is updated to revenue at the “low end” of the EUR 52-57m range and EBITDA of around EUR 11m vs previously EUR 12-15m. Although October showed a strong start of 48% growth y/y, regulatory changes in Germany and delays in onboarding of new platform customers is the reason for the more cautious view on year ending. Our 2020 estimates are adjusted, now close to guidance (revenue EUR 52.8m and EBITDA EUR 10.9m). Estimates for 2021-22 are largely intact, EBITDA +/- 1-2%. GiG has 15 platform customers in the pipeline waiting to be launched, which in our view supports the revenue growth outlook for next year. We forecast 20% revenue CAGR in 2020-22 and normalised EBITDA margin to expand from 21% to 36%.
SOTP analysis suggests equity valuation of SEK 12.0 per share
Our DCF analysis yields a mid-point value of SEK 18.6 using a 10% WACC and implies 20-25% CoE at the current share price. Our SOTP derives an intrinsic value of SEK 12.0 and suggests that the market does not discount a successful turnaround. On our updated forecasts, the shares trade at a negative PER on 2020E, 9.5x on 2021E, and 6x on 2022E.
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