Normalised revenues came in at EUR 18.2m, which is +29% y-o-y, while EBITDA was EUR 5.6m, up 35% y-o-y. Furthermore, it was announced that January has started off with revenues up 20% compared to the same period last year (24% adjusted for terminated white-labels). The Q4 results came in slightly below expectations but the trading update was strong in our view. Furthermore, we note that the Betsson contract was recently renewed, which de-risks the case, and that the Sportnco acquisition is continuing as planned, however it is not yet completed.
Sales for ‘22e-‘23e up slightly, driven by the media segment
We forecast that the media segment will continue to outperform the rest of the Group, which drives our sales estimates for ’22-‘23 up by 3.5-5.6%. However, we also note that the paid media business continues to grow at a fast pace, thus we raise our estimated marketing costs. In total, we lower our EBIT margin assumptions slightly, but in absolute terms our estimates for ’22-‘23 EBIT are up by small numbers.
Trading at 7.2x EV/EBITDA in ‘22e
GiG is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of 7.2x in ‘22e, with most of the EBITDA stemming from the affiliate segment. As such, we compare GiG multiples with affiliate peers such as Catena Media and Raketech, which trades at 4.7x and 4.4x Factset cons. for ‘22e EV/EBITDA, respectively. However, GiG is operating three segments, and following the planned consolidation of Sportnco, the sports betting segment is expected to contribute to the group EBITDA. Thus, a peer group both including affiliate companies and B2B suppliers could be sufficient. The total peer group average, when including both affiliates and B2B suppliers, is trading at ~10x the Factset consensus estimates for EV/EBITDA in 2022.
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