Q4e: 8% org. growth and 44% adj. EBITDA margin
We forecast Q4 normalised sales and adj. EBITDA of EUR 33.5m and EUR 14.7m, respectively, for sales growth of 29% y-o-y (of which 8% is organic) and a margin of 43.9%. We believe the sportsbook margin was weighing on October, as with most sports betting-exposed companies, but we expect it to have normalised during the quarter, e.g., looking at read-throughs from Kindred and Flutter's respective Q4 trading updates. Furthermore, with a snowball effect in Media NDC's on revenue share contracts, we expect continued stable sequential growth. In Platform and Sportsbook, we are keen on seeing new division CEO Richard Carter's potential impact ahead, i.e., if we could see an acceleration in client signings and thus the growth rate given his experience and network from the SBTech years, but not yet from Q4. On costs, we estimate a small opex increase q-o-q on higher marketing spend related to Media, and a small increase in Platform and Sportsbook as well.
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