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Glaston: First impressions - Q3 20 - Danske Bank

Conclusion
Q3 sales and orders were sharply below our estimates, but (low) earnings in line, thanks to cost-savings and synergies. We expect low orders to drive cuts to 2021 consensus estimates and expect a negative reaction for the shares (-5% or more). The performance was better in Insulating glass (driven by residential construction) but weak in Heat Treatment i.e. safety glass (more exposed to commercial construction). Consequently, Glaston sees a clear need to adapt Heat Treatment business to current market demand. Automotive remains weak due to overcapacity. In our view, it seems that a sustainable recovery in Glaston's business remains uncertain, despite decent performance of Insulating Glass. ND/EBITDA (LTM) rose to >3x and balance sheet becomes a risk unless earnings improve.

Reported numbers and figures
Orders down 25% y/y compared to our estimate for -15% (no consensus). The order intake sequentially improved from Q2 (-46%) as Glaston had guided, but less than we expected. Sales 18% below our estimate, declining by 34% y/y. Divisionally, Heat Treatment (HT) and Automotive & Emerging technology were weak, and in HT the orders actually declined sequentially. The Insulating Glass (IG) business performed better and its orders were up 1% y/y. Adj. EBITA was close to our expectations, thanks to cost-savings and synergies supporting earnings.

Outlook and guidance
Unchanged - comparable EBITA to decline in 2020. Q4 orders to improve from Q3 but remain below previous year's level.
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