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Gomspace: Cancelled A&M project not a major surprise - Danske Bank

Cancellation of the Aerial & Maritime (A&M) project in Q2 was not a major surprise given recent writedowns. We remove SEK1 per share from our valuation approach to reflect this. Q2 revenue and EBIT, adjusted for A&M settlements, came in slightly shy of our estimates but what we find important is that GomSpace reiterated its 2020 revenue guidance. It also continues to report improving cash flows, ending Q2 with SEK129m in cash.

Q2 20 review. Adjusting for one-offs relating to the A&M cancellation and bad debt provisions, Q2 was slightly below our sales and EBIT estimates. In Q2, GomSpace cancelled the A&M project, resulting in c.SEK12m depreciation of equity interest but not affecting 2020 revenue guidance. This comes after the Q4 19 writedown of a large part of its A&M holding, so we argue it is not a major surprise. Adjusting for customer settlements in Q2 20 and Q2 19, we estimate underlying revenues grew c.54% y/y in Q2 and cost control continues to be good. Operational cash flow is improving year on year and, with favourable working capital effects and a tax receivable, the cash position rose by SEK10m q/q to SEK129m. In Q2, GomSpace’s net order intake fell by 31% y/y to SEK42m, with the order backlog at SEK122m at end-Q2. GomSpace’s CEO commented on expected orders for H2 20, to help 2021. Some 58% of the order backlog is from the science business area, another reason for the reiterated 2020 revenue guidance.

Pandemic increases risk of client delays. We expect satellite launch delays in this nascent market and many of GomSpace’s most important clients are currently facing delays due to funding issues or a crowded/grounded launch market. Most companies need to pass certain milestones (such as satellite launches) to ensure further financing, which adds to delays. Commercial orders have higher gross margins than science orders.
Estimate revisions. We lower our 2020-22 sales estimates slightly, partly on the lower order backlog quarter on quarter. We are awaiting further orders to derisk our 2021-22 growth estimates.

Valuation. We continue to see value in the shares but also acknowledge that this is not without risk, as clients need to progress further with their projects in order for this to materialise, i.e. the outlook for commercial orders needs to become clearer, which might take until within 2021. In addition to estimate revisions, we have removed SEK1 for A&M from our valuation range, which we lower to SEK7-26 (from SEK9-28 previously).
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