Going into Q1’22 we expect to see a mostly continued trend from Q4, with slightly more product sales included vs. Q1’21. We therefore expect sales to grow ~45% y-o-y, to reach SEK ~51m (FactSet cons. SEK 51m), up from SEK ~35m in Q1’21. The increased proportion of product sales translates into an expected Q1’22 gross margin of 19% (FactSet cons. ~23%), corresponding to an improvement of ~16pp from the Q1’21 gross margin of ~3%.
Limited Russia/Ukraine/COVID exposure
With Q1’22 expected to be a solid start to the year, we anticipate that the FY’22 guidance will be reiterated: revenues of SEK 264m-292m (ABGSCe SEK 277m, FactSet cons. SEK 278m) and an EBIT margin of better than -15% (ABGSCe -13%, FactSet cons. ~-13%). This is despite the ongoing external volatility from: 1) component shortages (which is largely factored into the current guidance), 2) the Russia/Ukraine conflict (GomSpace currently has limited exposure), and 3) COVID in China (no exposure currently). However, although GomSpace currently has limited supply chain exposure to Russia/Ukraine, to account for the risk of increased input costs we slightly lower our FY’23e gross margin by 0.5pp, and note that the conflict has resulted in an increased likelihood of higher government defense spending.
Lack of engineers still a headwind
We note that the ongoing lack of access to skilled engineers is continuing to provide headwinds. Nevertheless, despite the uncertainties, we expect Q1’22 to be solid and the FY’22 guidance to be reiterated. We therefore maintain our scenario-based fair value range of SEK 7-45.
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