Estimate changesWe lower 2023e adj. EBITA by 1% due to slightly lower margins in Sweden and Norway and FX (-1%), which is almost offset by positive effects from M&A (3%). As a result, we raise 2024e-2025e EBITA by 1%. For 2023, we now forecast 6% organic sales, which combined with a 9.0% margin yields 26% adj. EBITA growth and a 12% adj. EBITA CAGR '22-'25e.
Consolidation opportunities remain, 11-9x EBITA '23e-'25eWe continue to believe that GLG should be in a good position to grow organically given its exposure to steadily growing markets and a high exposure to public customers (60-70% of sales). M&A headroom remains, and we remain optimistic about GLG's margin trajectory (currently at ~9% vs. ~5% '17-'20). For '22-'25e, we expect GLG to deliver growth, margins, ROCE and FCF in line with peers, while the share is currently trading ~5% below key peers (FG, INSTAL, NORVA), at 11-9x EBITA '23e-'25e and 8-9% FCF yields.
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