Last quarter with challenging Swedish project
We expect a somewhat tougher Q3 compared to Q2 in terms of organic growth (0% vs. +5% in Q2) due to still-subdued activity in Sweden (-4% Q3'24e) and tougher comparables in Rest of Europe (+29% Q3'23, -5% Q3'24e). This together with an active M&A agenda (+9% addition to sales) should yield sales of SEK 1,535m, +7% y-o-y. Although we expect the challenging project in Sweden to be finalised in Q3, costs have likely exceeded prior expectations. Thus, we forecast adj. EBITA of SEK 125m, -3% y-o-y (we est. -17% organic), for a margin of 8.2% (9.0% Q3'23). This is due to a ~4% margin in Sweden and a normalisation of margins in Norway (~9%) and Rest of Europe (~18%). We expect the finalised Swedish project, together with M&A support and a slight uptick in organic growth, to drive a return to earnings growth in Q4 (+7% adj. EBITA growth). Finally, recent M&A has lifted YE'24e ND/EBITDA to 2.8x, but solid cash flow (~40-60% of EBITA '24e-'26e) and higher earnings mean that M&A headroom remains into 2025e-2026e.
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