Outlook: strong growth, margin expansion Waning consumer sentiment in general suggests that H2’22 may be challenging. However, we believe that Humble is positioned in the sweet spot of current consumer trends with a material exposure to discount retailers. Additionally, price adjustments were implemented at the beginning of Q3’22, offsetting a fair share of the current COGS inflation. Due to the swift organic growth pace and additional M&A, we expect working capital to grow further. Furthermore, we stress that Q4’22 is a seasonally strong quarter for the group. As such, we forecast higher inventory levels in Q3’22e but a slight release after the Christmas trading. From Q3 onwards, three large acquisitions will be consolidated, of which the Privab companies are expected to add ~SEK 820m to FY sales whereas we calculate a dilutive effect of ~70bp on the EBITDA margin for ’23e-‘24e. Lastly, we forecast a net debt of SEK 2.7bn (5.2x EBITDA) at the end of FY’22e.
Trading at 10-8x EV/EBITA ’23e-‘24e As we add the abovementioned acquisitions to our estimates, we raise our ‘23e-‘24e adj. EBITA by 12-10%. Humble is currently trading at a corresponding ‘23e- ... Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier
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