Q2’22 thoughts and outlook Humble’s Q2 report came in a touch below our expectations but with continued strong organic growth of 44% (+19pp. vs ABGSCe 25%), to be compared with the target of 15%. As such, the M&A contribution was slightly softer than we anticipated. As expected, on the back of cost inflation, higher freight costs and mix, margins came down somewhat, with a gross margin of 35.1% (-4.3pp. y-o-y and +1.6pp. vs ABGSCe 33.5%) and the adj. EBITA margin of 8.4% (-3.9pp. y-o-y, -1.3pp. vs ABGSCe 9.6%). Considering the seasonally slower nature of H1, we expect higher sales and improved margins in H2’22e. Lastly, Humble states that the outlook is strong, including continuous growth and potential deal ahead.
We expect consensus to come down slightly The Humble Group shares is down c. 46% YTD and is on our unrevised estimates trading at EV/EBITA of 11.5x (‘23e). We expect consensus estimates to come down slightly on the back of the reported Q2’22 results.
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