ICOcap royalty agreement signed with BNC Korea. In July, Iconovo signed a licence agreement (its fourth royalty agreement since inception) with BNC Korea for its ICOcap device covering two generic formulations within the treatment of COPD. The formulations sold today by Novartis refer to (1) Ultibro Breezhaler (indacaterol, glycopyrronium), and (2) Seebri Breezhaler (glycopyrronium). In 2019, combined net sales of Ultibro + Seebri amounted to c.USD550m, and c.USD82m in BNC's territories.
Estimate changes. We have increased our long-term sales estimates due to the recently signed royalty agreement with BNC Korea. Furthermore, we have increased our opex estimates, including incorporating a higher number of employees.
Valuation. Our updated DCF-derived fair value points to a valuation range of SEK649-847m (previously SEK599-774m), assuming a cost of capital of between 8% and 11% (previously from 9% and 12%), corresponding to a share price of SEK83-109 (previously SEK77-99). We see a lower WACC as warranted following (1) the new royalty agreement, confirming its in-house technology and (2) the CEO transition, with Iconovo now more focused on commercialisation.