Royalty income expected in beginning to mid-2023. Iconovo’s ICOres project with Amneal regarding the generic version of Symbicort is now in its final phase and Iconovo expects that pharmacokinetic studies (to prove similarity of uptake as the original product) are due to start during next year (performed by Amneal) with potential filing in 2022. If achieving a positive outcome from its pharmacokinetic studies, ICOres as a generic version of Symbicort should be available for commercial launch in European countries in early to mid-2023; this is also set to translate into Iconovo collecting its first royalty payments.
Estimate changes. Our estimate revisions are the result of a change in the launch year for ICOres from 2022 to 2023. We have also postponed the launch of ICOres with Intas Pharma. In total this leads to short-term revenue revisions of -SEK9m-32m in net sales 2021-22E.
Valuation. Our updated DCF-derived fair value points to a valuation range of SEK596-783m (previously SEK649-847m), assuming a cost of capital of between 8% and 11%, corresponding to a share price of SEK77-101 (previously SEK83-109).
Link to research
https://research.danskebank.com/research/#/Research/articlepreview/d42b4df2-5db4-4a7e-b7b5-55ea06a630a9/EN
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