Impact Coatings: Services leading the way into 2026 - ABG
* Q4 sales of SEK 18m (ABGSCe 16m), EBIT -3.3m (ABGSCe -10m) * Momentum in SOFC coatings for data centre/power generation * Expect near-term revenues to be Service-driven
ANNONS
Q4 results
Impact Coatings reported sales of SEK 18m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 16m) and better-than-expected EBIT of SEK -3.3m (vs. ABGSCe SEK -10m). Although there were no machine deliveries in the quarter (in line with estimates), we find it positive that Coating Services showed momentum and grew +47% y-o-y. Since Q4'24, the company has implemented efficiency measures to reduce costs, and Q4 saw personnel expenses decline to SEK 13m from SEK 19m in Q4'24.
Estimate changes and outlook
We raise our '26e-'27e sales by 1-5% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by SEK 6m the back of the Q4 report. Management reiterated that the market recovery is expected to be gradual, with Services providing a stable base until System orders start to pick up.
Waiting for System orders
While the improved services trajectory is encouraging, a recovery in System orders (we estimate two deliveries for '26e) remains key to reducing longer-term liquidity risk. Due to market uncertainty, however, we stress the downside risk to estimates. Management argues that the lack of new machine orders in China reflects insufficient market growth to trigger new installations (~10–20% market growth '24 vs. '25), and is therefore shifting focus toward the SOFC opportunity, which it expects to grow materially faster, driven by data-centre power generation. Near-term, the opportunity is more Services-led, but management expects System sales to follow as volumes scale and customers integrate stamping and coating in-house; Ceres’ licence base (Doosan/Delta/Weichai) supports management’s view of a sizeable multi-year opportunity. The company is currently trading at 1.3x-1.2x '26e-'27e EV/sales.
