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Invisio: 2021 a lost year, future looks brighter - ABG

Q3 organic sales growth of -28% and first loss since ‘13
‘21e-‘23e sales cut by 6% and EBIT by 43-18%
Good long-term outlook, but limited short-term visibility

Although expectations came down, Q3 was even lower, with the company delivering negative EBIT for the first time since 2013. The negative organic growth of 28% due to slower sales processes (difficulties in implementing tests and temporary changes in budget priorities among customers, according to the company) also slows the chance of winning large orders. However, Racal contributed with almost twice as much to sales q-o-q. According to the company, this is a normal fluctuation (for the Invisio products as well) due to the customers’ delivery times needing to be considered. Except the non-recurring cost of SEK 10m due to the acquisition of Racal, opex was in line with our expectations. The negative EBIT was simply a result of the weak top-line, as the higher cost base was due to an increased R&D organisation, stronger sales team and product development. Also, from not being affected by the global supply chain constraints, the company now sees longer lead times, which can affect deliveries and therefore sales.

We keep our positive long-term growth view, as we believe that Invisio has a great niche product mix and good market position given the large, unpenetrated market. However, we would like to see some large orders to be more confident in the short term. On our reviewed estimates the share is trading at ’22e and ‘23e EV/EBIT of 49x and 30x, respectively.
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