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Kebni: Mixed bag in Q3 – steep growth ahead - Emergers

Despite 29% top-line growth in Q3’23, sales were a bit soft due to a slower-than-anticipated ramp-up of deliveries to Saab. This has led us to lower our FY forecast, while we still expect a significant rise in sales in Q4 and beyond. Now at a stable delivery pace of IMUs, KebNi also reports of other sales-oriented activities within SatCom and Inertial Sensing likely to boost sales in 2024. While the company remains committed to its strategic five-year plan, we have made a slight revision to our gross margin estimate, meaning that we now find support for a fair value of SEK 1.5-2.5 (1.7-2.7) per share, where the reported progress in the scaffolding joint venture, with potential commercialization in 2024, adds an extra option on top.

Despite 29% top-line growth in Q3’23, sales were a bit soft due to a slower-than-anticipated ramp-up of deliveries to Saab. This has led us to lower our FY forecast, while we still expect a significant rise in sales in Q4 and beyond. Now at a stable delivery pace of IMUs, KebNi also reports of other sales-oriented activities within SatCom and Inertial Sensing likely to boost sales in 2024. While the company remains committed to its strategic five-year plan, we have made a slight revision to our gross margin estimate, meaning that we now find support for a fair value of SEK 1.5-2.5 (1.7-2.7) per share, where the reported progress in the scaffolding joint venture, with potential commercialization in 2024, adds an extra option on top.
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