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Kopy Goldfields: Solid 2020 results with funding in place for growth - Edison

Kopy Goldfields has reported its first full year results as a Russian gold producer following the Amur Zoloto reverse acquisition (the comparative 2019 results are for Amur Zoloto only). The company saw revenue rise 41% to US$98.8m and EBITDA rise 67% to US$45.6m. Having secured a US$42.3m debt facility maturing in September 2023, Kopy is fully funded to support its growth profile and we expect the company to end 2021 with net debt of US$61.8m and US$13.7m in cash and undrawn debt facilities.

We think one of the key positives from the 2020 results lies in the details of the company’s funding headroom.

Our updated base case discounted free cash flow to equity (DCFE) valuation of Kopy is little c hanged at US$286m (previously US$295m) or SEK2.78/share (previously SEK2.76/share). This is based on our standard gold price deck (long-term real gold price of US$1,524/oz) and 10% discount rate. Running a sensitivity analysis at a flat real long-term gold price of US$1,700/oz (ie US$1,700/oz rising by inflation) the discounted dividend valuation of Kopy would be SEK3.00 per share. The planned Nasdaq Nordic main market listing could be a catalyst for increased investor interest in Kopy Goldfields.
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