Bildkälla: Stockfoto

Litium: Stability in a tough environment - ABG

'24e-'25e EBITDA cut by 9-6% on tough macro
Growth somewhat more muted on lighter investments
EV/ARR ~2x, '24e EV/EBITDA ~11x


What to look for in Q4'23e

For Q4, we expect a reported ARR of SEK 74.7m and sales of SEK 18.6m. These figures imply y-o-y growth of 9% and 6%, respectively. We also anticipate an EBITDA of SEK 2.3m, which corresponds to a margin of ~12%, and operating cash flow of SEK 2.8m. B2C volumes are still likely to remain under pressure, whereas B2B volumes should be relatively stable. Given the linearity of the ARR growth and the large share of recurring, fixed revenues, it is unlikely that sales will be volatile.
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