Maha reported Q4 EBITDA of USD 15.6m, above both ABGSCe at USD 11.9m and FactSet consensus at USD 14.1m. The beat was driven by USD 5.2m in “Other gains”, which included a provision reversal and adjustments of a one-off nature. Adjusted for this, EBITDA was USD 10.4m, below both ABGSCe and FactSet expectations. Production in the quarter averaged 3,098 boe/d, in line with our estimate.
Estimates up on oil price, potential to surprise on production
We raise our estimates to reflect our recently increased oil price estimates; we currently estimate Brent at USD 88, 80, 70 and 65 for ‘22e, ‘23e, ‘24e, ‘25e and beyond. We keep our production and capex estimates unchanged for now and broadly in line with the 2022 guidance mid-point. It appears that the Tie-4 well has got off to a good start, and if this level of performance continues, there could be potential for positive guidance revisions later in 2022. However, it seems sensible to maintain guidance for now, as there are still limited production data and we are early in the year. A conservative guidance and consequent guidance beat would also contribute to establish confidence in capital markets, which we think would be favourable for Maha.
Share discounts Brent at USD 58/bbl
We estimate that Maha discounts Brent at USD 58/bbl; multiples are in the low single-digits.
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