Q4 estimate changes
Q4'22e is likely to be similar to Q3 in a few ways, with a gross margin below 20% on a group level and limited price increases. For Q4e we cut organic growth by 1pp to 0% and the gross margin by 350bps to 19.5%, on the back of persistent food inflation and a lower estimated likelihood of meaningfully passing on incremental cost inflation to pharmacies and health food stores. That said, we believe that Midsona should have a better chance of passing through price increases to its grocery trade clients, starting in Q1'23e.
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