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Midsona: Now is the time to shine - ABG

Q3 report due on 22 October
We expect sales of SEK 994m and adj. EBIT of SEK 61m
Slightly neg. estimate revisions on soaring raw materials

Midsona will publish its Q3 results on Friday, 22 October. In this report, we bear in mind that the company will experience significantly easier comparisons in H2’21. In Q3, the company will meet the de-stocking comps of Q3’20. All in all, we expect Q3 organic growth of 2% y-o-y for sales of SEK 994m and adj. EBIT of SEK 61m, corresponding to an adj. EBIT margin of 6%. Our estimate changes in this report sum up to low-single digits on adj. EBIT ‘22e-‘23e and low double digits on EPS. The main changes we have made are: 1) incorporating Vitality, 2) incorporating the capital raise executed this summer and 3) taking a cautious stance for potential negative effects within the supply chain.

After a rough H1 for Midsona, we foresee a H2 with more tailwinds with easier comps and a reopening market aiding the Midsona M&A model in combination with realising synergies. On our updated estimates, the share is trading at a ‘21e-‘23e EV/EBITA of 19x-14x.
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