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MT Højgaard Holding: Facing some busy years ahead - ABG

Phasing of high order intake results in margin dilution
One large order in Q3 with solid margin pick-up in H2’21e
Fair value range lowered to DKK 150-280 (165-290)

Following MTHH’s guidance announcement on 13 October, we have updated our estimates to reflect the company’s comments regarding the phasing of its backlog for 2021-22e. As a result, we have raised our sales estimates by 5-7% for 2021e-23e and now forecast ~DKK 7.1bn and ~DKK 8bn in 2021 and 2022, respectively (in line with the updated guidance for both years). We have also increased our EBIT by 12% for 2021e and lowered it by 11% for 2022e. We now forecast EBIT (b.s.i/PPA incl. ~DKK 5m in admin costs) of DKK 187m in 2021 and DKK 289m in 2022 (company guiding for DKK 185m and DKK 280m). Previously, MTHH guided for an EBIT margin of ~4% in 2022, but with a large pick-up in order intake from DKK 7.5bn in 2020 to DKK 10bn in 2021e along with several framework agreements, phasing of the many new contracts will dilute margins.

Following our estimate changes, our DCF scenario analysis now points to DKK 150-280 (165-290), which we set as our new fair value range. The company is trading at 5.6x EV/EBIT’23e vs. Nordic construction peers at 8.7x. Based on our estimates and the company’s guidance, MTHH is expected to deliver high double-digit EPS growth in 2021-23.
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