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Napatech: Cautious on H2e, but LT outlook unchanged - ABG

Estimate 9% y-o-y growth in Q3 sales
Lower ’21e sales by ~2%
Peer EV/Sales points to share price of NOK 9-27

Napatech will report its Q3 results on November 3. We expect slightly lower pent-up demand in Q3 than we had previously anticipated. Q3 is typically the weakest quarter for Napatech, but with H1 affected by COVID-19, we expect a slight improvement in underlying growth. As such, we lower our Q3 sales estimate to DKK 48m, corresponding to 10% underlying y-o-y growth (vs. 4-5% in H1).

On our estimates, Napatech is trading at EV/Sales multiples of 4.4x and 3.2x for 2021e and 2022e, respectively. This compares to its Nordic peers at 2.6-7.9x in EV/Sales for the corresponding period. The implied share price range based on peer EV/Sales is NOK 9-27. We expect Napatech to grow by ~31% in 2022, and we see potential for a further acceleration in growth if the virtualisation strategy proves successful.
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