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Napatech: Challenging 2022, but 2023 looks promising - ABG

Sales 37% below ABGSC, down 33% y-o-y Lower guidance somewhat outweighed by large ‘23 order Cons ’22 EBITDA down 25-35%, small changes to ‘23 Q2 miss driven by lower sales due to challenging market Napatech delivered Q2 sales of DKK 35.5m, down 33% y-o-y adj. for FX. This was 37% below our estimate of DKK 56m. The gross margin was 70% vs. ABGSC at 70%. Operating costs were DKK 38m, vs. ABGSC at DKK 39m, i.e. largely in line. This resulted in an EBITDAC of DKK -12.9m vs ABGSC at DKK 0m. FCFF was DKK -6.1m vs ABGSC at DKK -8m.

Lowers FY 2022 sales guidance by 16% The company lowers its 2022 sales guidance to DKK 195-220m (235-260m), i.e. down 16% on a midpoint basis, which is also ~16% below our current estimate of DKK 247m. Napatech reiterates its gross margin guidance of 69-71%, vs. ABGSC at 70%, but expects 9% lower operating costs of DKK 145-155m (155-165m previously), vs. ABGSC at DKK 164m. This results in a 2022 EBITDAC guidance of DKK -4.8m on a midpoint basis which compares to ABGSC at DKK 9m.

Cons’ ‘22 EBITDA down 25-35%, but only small chg. to ‘23 Although Napatech is seeing challenging market conditions, it remains confident that growth will accelerate in 2023 following new design wins. In the presentation, the company highlights that it has been awarded a significant new design-in to be delivered in 2023 with potential full-year revenue of USD 10-15m. Preliminary, we expect cons’ ‘22e EBITDA to come down 25-35%, but that ’23 EBITDA to be largely unchanged, given the new order.

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