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Napatech: Investing to capture large growth opportunity - ABG

Q3 sales below, but 2021e outlook is unchanged
Higher inv. in ‘22e to target Virtualisation opportunity
Peer EV/Sales points to share price of NOK 9-30

Napatech delivered Q3 revenue of DKK 47.2m (+7% y-o-y). This was slightly below our estimate. The gross margin was strong at 73% (vs. the annual target of 70-72%). This was driven by favourable product mix (i.e. products with higher software share), leading to a strong EBITDAC of DKK 6.2m (13% margin, vs. our estimate of a 11% margin).

On our estimates, Napatech is trading at EV/Sales multiples of 4.7x and 3.5x for 2021e and 2022e, respectively. This compares to its Nordic peers at 2.1x-8.8x in EV/Sales for the corresponding period. The implied share price range based on peer EV/Sales is NOK 9-30. We expect Napatech to grow ~30% in 2022e and see potential for a further acceleration in growth if the Virtualisation strategy proves successful.
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