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Napatech. On track to reach its FY targets - ABG

Underlying y-o-y sales growth of 4% in Q2
Solid long-term ambitions, potential upside to estimates
Peer EV/sales points to share price of NOK 11-28Underlying y-o-y sales growth of 4% in Q2
Solid long-term ambitions, potential upside to estimates
Peer EV/sales points to share price of NOK 11-28

Napatech delivered Q2 revenue of DKK 46.4m (-5% y-o-y, +4% adj. for FX). The somewhat soft underlying growth can be explained by a stall in OEM sales due to COVID-19, as these require physical on-site installations. EBITDA was DKK 8.6m (19% margin), slightly below our estimate (23% margin) with the shortfall mainly explained by higher personnel costs. The company, however, reiterates its targeted FY EBITDA margin of 22%. Into Q3, Napatech has seen positive momentum and with good visibility from OEM customers (3-6 months), we are confident that growth will start to pick up in H2; we estimate sales of DKK 54m for Q3e, implying 22% y-o-y growth.

On our estimates, Napatech is trading at an EV/sales multiple of 4.4x and 3.2x, in 2021e and 2022e, respectively. This compares to its Nordic peers, which are at 2.9-7.7x in EV/sales for the corresponding period. The implied share price range based on peer EV/sales is NOK 11-28. We expect Napatech to grow ~30% in 2022, and we see the potential for a further acceleration in growth if the virtualisation strategy proves successful.
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