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Nelly: Corroborating a turnaround - SEB

Nelly Group, the women’s online fashion retailer, reported Q1 earnings much ahead of our expectations, largely driven by a solid gross margin and cost efficiency gains from its automated DC. Importantly, we estimate several key margin drivers (PL share, return rates) are sustainable and lift our full-year EBIT forecasts by 29% for 2024 and 5% for 2025. We set our new DCF-based mid-point equity value at SEK 34 (29) with a range of SEK 26-43.

Nelly Group, the women’s online fashion retailer, reported Q1 earnings much ahead of our expectations, largely driven by a solid gross margin and cost efficiency gains from its automated DC. Importantly, we estimate several key margin drivers (PL share, return rates) are sustainable and lift our full-year EBIT forecasts by 29% for 2024 and 5% for 2025. We set our new DCF-based mid-point equity value at SEK 34 (29) with a range of SEK 26-43.
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