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Nelly: Leverage works both ways - SEB

Following weaker-than-expected Q1 sales and LBIT, we cut our financial forecasts for Q2-Q4 in this year (and for 2023-24). Based on revised earnings, we arrive at our new mid-point DCF-based value of SEK 45 per share (down from SEK 55). Excluding lease debt, we reckon the equity is now being valued at 0.13x this year’s EV/sales. We forecast Q2 EBIT of SEK 25m (seasonally a more important period), showing leverage works both ways.

Following weaker-than-expected Q1 sales and LBIT, we cut our financial forecasts for Q2-Q4 in this year (and for 2023-24). Based on revised earnings, we arrive at our new mid-point DCF-based value of SEK 45 per share (down from SEK 55). Excluding lease debt, we reckon the equity is now being valued at 0.13x this year’s EV/sales. We forecast Q2 EBIT of SEK 25m (seasonally a more important period), showing leverage works both ways.
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